MAY is set to define Exeter Chiefs’ season – and it begins with a huge test tomorrow as Rob Baxter’s side travel to Belfast for a European Challenge Cup semi-final against Ulster Rugby (5.30pm).

With a potential final in Bilbao on the horizon, followed by a decisive run-in in the Gallagher Premiership, the coming weeks will shape whether this campaign is remembered as a breakthrough year or one that slipped away at the final hurdle.

Director of rugby Rob Baxter has already seen enough to believe his side have moved on significantly from last season’s struggles, when the Chiefs endured a club-record defeat at Gloucester and finished with just four Premiership wins and no European victories.

Now, sitting fourth in the league and 80 minutes away from a European final, Baxter says the shift in expectations is both welcome and revealing.

“Now, it would feel really disappointing if we don’t see something off or get to at least one big game,” Baxter admitted. “Getting this far and then slipping up, or maybe not getting to the final, or dropping out of the top four, would feel quite disappointing now because we’ve got to where we are.”

He added that the contrast with last season highlights how quickly perceptions can change in elite sport.

“But if you’d flipped it and said, ‘next season you’ll be in this position’, everyone would have taken it. That shows you how sport is.”

Exeter’s transformation has been built on a combination of coaching stability, emerging young talent, and key summer signings. International stars such as Len Ikitau, Andrea Zambonin, Stephen Varney and Tom Hooper have added experience and control to a squad still developing its identity.

However, Baxter is also under no illusions about the challenge ahead, particularly in a knockout environment where margins are razor thin and pressure is amplified.

For many within the squad, tomorrow’s encounter represents their first major European semi-final experience, with the club having not reached a Premiership play-off for five years and without a European knockout win in the past two seasons prior to this campaign.

“It feels daunting and it’s a challenge, but it’s brilliant,” Baxter said. “It’s brilliant to be in a European semi-final, brilliant to be in the top four. These are fantastic opportunities for us, and my job is to help bring the best out of the players, not the worst.”

The Chiefs head into the tie with notable absentees. Club captain Jack Yeandle, Olly Woodburn and Paul Brown-Bampoe all miss out through injury. In the back row, Greg Fisilau is being monitored for a knee issue, while Ethan Roots is suspended following a red card against Gloucester.

Despite those setbacks, Baxter has named a reshaped but experienced side for the trip to the Affidea Stadium. Dafydd Jenkins captains the team, while the likes of Len Ikitau and Henry Slade adds international quality to the midfield. Stephen Varney and Harvey Skinner continue their half-back partnership, with Immanuel Feyi-Waboso among the backline threats.

Up front, Scott Sio returns at loosehead, with Max Norey and Bachuki Tchumbadze completing the front row. Jenkins partners Andrea Zambonin in the second row, while Christ Tshiunza, Tom Hooper and Ross Vintcent form the back row.

Baxter expects a fiercely physical contest under the Belfast lights.

“Ulster will try to set the physicality early,” he said. “They’ll believe they can dominate key areas, but I expect us to set a different intensity and make it a very competitive game from the start.”

With a potential European final and a string of Premiership defining fixtures, including Bath, Harlequins, Leicester Tigers and Saracens, still to come, Baxter is clear on what lies ahead.

“The season will be defined by the next month,” he said. “May will determine whether we feel really good about ourselves – or not.”

EXETER CHIEFS: Ben Hammersley; Campbell Ridl, Henry Slade, Len Ikitau, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso; Harvey Skinner, Stephen Varney; Scott Sio, Max Norey, Bachuki Tchumbadze; Dafydd Jenkins (c), Andrea Zambonin; Tom Hooper, Christ Tshiunza, Ross Vintcent. Replacements: Joseph Dweba, Ethan Burger, Josh Iosefa-Scott, Rusi Tuima, Finn Worley Brady, Tom Cairns, Will Haydon-Wood, Nick Lilley.